外匯本質是相對供給與相對利率

• 找「當局不得不（或故意要）讓匯率走某個方向」的結構性弱點／意圖，然後用槓桿押注

  • 執政資源推進 -> 資產價格表現 -> 市場是否還沒充分定價？ -> 流動性夠不夠大？ -> 用什麼結構表達？

• 股價本質上反映折現後的預期現金流

The Psychology of Money

Morgan Housel

Grouped by book topics. Green → ### theme; purple → bold; pink → [insights]; blue → [how]; yellow → [info].

Introduction: The Greatest Show On Earth

• What you've experienced is more compelling than what you learn secondhand

• Your personal experiences with money make up maybe 80% of how you think the world works

ch2 - luck and risk

• it’s never as good or as bad as it seems

• focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns

• [info] by looking for broad patterns of success and failure. — that people who have control over their time tend to be happier in life

ch3 - Never Enough

• [info] because they wanted more

• [info] it’s a battle that can never be won

• There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain

  • [insights] Freedom and independence are invaluable
  • [insights] Family and friends are invaluable
  • [insights] Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable
  • [insights] Happiness is invaluable
  • [insights] reputation is invaluable

ch4 - Compounding

ch5 - Getting Wealthy vs Staying Wealthy

• [info] stay wealthy: some combination of frugality and paranoia

• [insights] Getting money requires taking risks, being optimistic, and putting yourself out there. But keeping money requires the opposite of taking risk. It requires humility, and fear that what you’ve made can be taken away from you just as fast.

• [insights] Applying the survival mindset to the real world

  • More than I want big returns, I want to be financially unbreakable

  • Room for error - often called margin of safety— is one of the most underappreciated forces in finance. A frugal budget, flexible thinking, and a loose timeline — anything that lets you live happily with a range of outcomes.

  • Optimistic about the future, but paranoid about what will prevent you from getting to the future. You need short-term paranoia to keep you alive long enough to exploit long-term optimism

ch6 - Tails, You Win

• some projects work and some don’t — There’s no reason to belabor either one. Just get on to the next

• Long tails — a small number of events can account for the majority of outcomes

• we underestimate how normal it is for a lot of things to fail. — Which causes us to overreact when they do

ch7 Freedom - Controlling your time is the highest dividend money pays

• [insight] people want to control their lives

  • The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless.

  • Having a strong sense of controlling one’s life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing

  • Money's greatest intrinsic value is its ability to give you control over your time. To obtain a level of independence and autonomy that comes from unspent assets that give you greater control over what you can do and when you can do it.

  • Using your money to buy time and options has a lifestyle benefit few luxury goods can compete with

• [info] What they did value were things like quality friendships, being part of something bigger than themselves, and spending quality, unstructured time with their children

ch8 - Man in the Car Paradox

• [insights] What you want is respect and admiration from other people, and you think having expensive stuff will bring it. It almost never does - especially from the people you want to respect and admire you

• [info] If respect and admiration are your goal, be careful how you seek it.

  • [insights] Humility, kindness, and empathy will bring you more respect than horsepower ever will

ch9 - Wealth is What you don't see

• [insights] The only way to be wealthy is to not spend the money that you do have.

• [info] Rich is a current income

• [insights] Wealth is an option not yet taken to buy something later. Its value lies in offering you options, flexibility, and growth to one day purchase — more stuff than you could right now

• [info] It’s difficult to learn from what you can’t see

ch10 - Save money

• [insights] lots to do with your savings rate

  • Becoming more efficient with the energy we use is largely in our control
  • [insights] If you view it as powered by your own frugality and efficiency, the destiny is clearer
  • [insights] More importantly, the value of wealth is relative to what you need

• Learning to be happy with less money creates a gap between what you have and what you want

  • A high savings rate means having lower expenses than you otherwise could
  • [insights] Past a certain level of income, what you need is just what sits below your ego

• [insights] When you define savings as the gap between your ego and your income

  • Spending beyond a pretty low level of materialism is mostly a reflection of ego approaching income, a way to spend money to show people that you have money
  • one of the most powerful ways to increase your savings isn’t to raise your income. It’s to raise your humility.
  • [insights] People with enduiring personal finance success tend to have a propensity to not give a damn what others think about them.

• money relies more on psychology than finance

  • [insights] savings can be created by spending less. You can spend less if you desire less. and you will desire less if you care less about what others think of you.

  • [insights] competitive advantages tilt toward nuanced and soft skills - like communication, empathy, and perhaps most of all, flexibility

    • flexibility is a powerful soft skill. It helps you stay relevant and up-to-date in our fast-moving world.

  • [insights] Having more control over your time and options is becoming one of the most valuable currencies in the world

ch 11 = Reasonable > Rational

• [insight] Do not aim to be coldly rational when making financial decisions. Aim to just be pretty reasonable. Reasonable is more realistic and you have a better chance of sticking with it for the long run

• [info] that’s where the science ends and reality takes over.

ch12 - surprise

ch13 - room for error

• [insights] Use room for error when estimating your future returns

  • Having a gap between what you can technically endure versus what's emotionally possible is an overlooked version of room for error

• [insights] my own money as barbelled

  • I take risks with one portion and am terrified with the other

  • I just want to ensure I can remain standing long enough for my risks to pay off. You have to survive to succeed — The ability to do what you want, when you want, for as long as you want, has an infinite ROI

  • with no savings to create a gap between what you think your expenses are and what they might be in the future

ch14 - you'll change

• [info] it’s equally important to save for things you can’t possibly predict or even comprehend
  • [insights] We should avoid the extreme ends of financial planning. when you consider our tendency to change who we are over time, [insights] balance at every point in your life becomes a strategy to avoid future regret and encourage endurance.
  • [insights] We should also come to accept the reality of changing our minds.

ch15 - Nothing's Free

• [insights] Everything has a price, but not all prices appear on labels

  • the key to a lot of things with money is just figuring out what that price is and being willing to pay it

• [insights] the price of investing success is not immediately obvious.

  • It's not a price tag you can see, so when the bill comes due it doesn't feel like a fee for getting something good. it feels like a fine for doing something wrong.

  • [info] volatility is real and common

• [insights] thinking of market volatility as a fee rather than a fine is an important part of developing the kind of mindset that lets you stick around long enough for investing gains to work in your favor

• [insights] if you view volatility as a fee, things look different

  • Same with markets. The volatility/uncertainty fee - the price of returns - is the cost of admission to get returns greater than low-fee parks like cash and bonds

  • If you view the admission fee as a fine, you'll never enjoy the magic. Find the price, then pay it.

ch16 You & Me

• [insights] The answer depends on who 'you' are

• [insights] So much consumer spending is socially driven: subtly influenced by people you admire, and done because you subtly want people to admire you

• [insights] identify what game you're playing

  • [info] we might not even have different styles. We're jsut playing a different game.
  • understanding your own time horizon and not being persuaded by the actions and behaviors of people playing different games than you are

ch16 The seduction of pessimism

• [info] Pessimism just sounds smarter and more plausible than optimism

  • [info] money is ubiquitous

  • [info] pessimists often extrapolate present trends without accounting for how markets adapt

    • necessity is the mother of all invention, it was far less scary
    • Assuming that something ugly will stay ugly is an easy forecast to make. And it’s persuasive, because it doesn’t require imagining the world changing.

  • [info] progress happens too slowly to notice, but setbacks happen too quickly to ignore.

    • Growth is driven by compounding, which always takes time. Destruction is driven by single points of failure, which can happen in seconds, and loss of confidence, which can happen in an instant.

• [insight] Pessimism reduces expectations, narrowing the gap between possible outcomes and outcomes you feel great about

ch18 - when you'll believe anthing

• [insight] There are many things in life that we think are true because we desperately want them to be true

  • [info] An appealing fiction happens when you are smart, you want to find solutions, but face a combination of limited control and high stakes
  • [info] they're only doing that because the possibility of a huge outcome exists
  • [insight] the biggest risk is that you want something to be true so badly that the range of your forecast isn't even in the same ballpark as reality.
    • this is a big part why room of error, flexibility, and financial independence are indispensable
    • [insight] the bigger the gap between what you want to be true and what you need to be true to have an acceptable outcome, the more you are protecting yourself from falling victim to an appealing financial fiction
    • [insight] there is no greater force in finance than room for error, and the higher the stakes, the wider it should be

• [insight] everyone has an incomplete view of the world. But we form a complete narrative to fill in th gaps

  • [info] she tells herself a coherent story about what's going on based on the little she does know

  • [info] most people do not realize they don't understand it because they're able to come up with an explanation that makes sense based on their own unique perspective and experiences in the world, however limited those experiences are.

  • [info] we all want the complicated world we live in to make sense. so we tell ourselves stories to fill in the gaps of what are effectively blind spots.

• why stories aer more powerful than statistics

  • [info] The one who's confident he knows what's happening based on what he sees but turns out to be completely wrong because he cann't know the stories going on inside everyone else's head

ch19 - All Together now

• [info] find humility when things are going right and forgiveness/compassion when they go wrong

  • Because it's never as good or as bad as it looks. The world is big and complex. Luck and risk are both real and hard to identify.
  • [insight] Respect the power of luck and risk and you'll have a better chance of focusing on things you can actually control.

• [info] less ego, more wealth

  • [info] saving money is the gap between your ego and your income, and wealth is what you don't see.
  • [info] wealth is created by supressing what you could buy today in order to have more stuff or more options in the future.

• [insight] "does this help me sleep at night?" is the best universal guidepost for all financial decisions

• [insight] if you want to do better as an investor, the single most powerful thing you can do is increase your time horizon.

  • [info] Time is the most powerful force in investing

• [insight] Become OK with a lot of things going wrong. You can be wrong half the time and still make a fortune, because a small minority of things account for the majority of outcomes.

  • [info] No matter what you're doing with your moeny you should be comfortable with a lot of stuff not working.

• [insight] Use money to gain control over your time.

  • [info] The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want to, pays the highest dividend that exists in finance.

• [insight] you're more likely to gain those things through kindness and humility than horsepower and chrome

• [insight] Just save. You don't need a specific reason to save

• [insight] Define the cost of success and be ready to pay it.

  • [info] Because nothing worthwhile is free. And remember that most financial costs don't have visible price tags.
  • [info] Uncertainty, doubt, and regret are common costs in the finance world. They're often worth paying. But you have to view them as fees (a price worth paying to get something nice in exchange) rather than fines (a penalty you should avoid)

• [insight] worship room for error

  • a gap between what could happen in the future and what you need to happen in the future in order to do well is what gives you endurance, and endurance is what makes compounding magic over time.

• [insight] Avoid theextreme ends of financial decisions.

• [insight] 你应该拥抱能带来长期回报的风险，但必须警惕那些可能导致彻底毁灭的风险，因为毁灭会让你彻底失去未来继续承担风险的机会

  • 计算底线：做任何事前，先看最坏的结果是不是你能承受的
  • 保护本金：不要把所有的筹码一次性押光
  • 着眼长远：确保今天的失败不会剥夺你明天的机会

• [insight] Define the game you’re playing, and make sure your actions are not being influenced by people playing a different game.

• [insight] Respect the mess. people have vastly different goals and desires.

  • There is no single right answer; just the answer that works for you.

ch20 - confessions

• [insight] I did not intend to get rich. I just wanted to get independent.

  • independence has always been my personal financial goal.
    I mostly just want to wake up every day knowing my family and I can do whatever we want to do on our own terms.
  • [insight] independence doesn't mean you'll stop working.
    It means you only do the work you like with people you like at the times you want for as long as you want.

  • [insight] independence is driven by your saving rate. it's mostly a matter of keeping your expectations in check and living below your means.

  • [insight] True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one's activities for peace of mind

• [insight] our goal is just psychologically reasonable

  • We keep a higher percentage of our assets in cash
    • we do it because cash is the oxygen of independence
    • Not being forced to sell stocks to cover an expense
  • dollar-cost averaging into a low-cost index fund will provide the highest odds of long-term success
  • my investing strategy relies on a high savings rate, patience, and optimism that the global economy will create value over the next several decades. the first two, which I can control.

• [insight] we'll always have the goal of independence, and we'll always do whatever maximizes for sleeping well at night.